The problem with disjunctive existential risk

Suppose that Alice and Bob have different beliefs about existential risk over the next 50 years.

Aug 13 • Stefan Schubert

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The response prior

What our track record can tell us about existential risk

Aug 6 • Stefan Schubert

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July 2026

Why we’re epistemically flexible but stubbornly self-regarding

A deep-rooted psychological asymmetry

Jul 31 • Stefan Schubert

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June 2026

Talk: The case for epistemic discipline

I gave a talk at EAGx Nordics about epistemic discipline, building on my argument-checking of opinion pieces and live debates.

Jun 17 • Stefan Schubert

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May 2026

The Rationality Gap

We’re good at solving problems, but not as good at seeing how other people solve theirs

May 20 • Stefan Schubert

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The tables have turned on AI sceptics

Epistemic conservatism no longer favours long timelines

May 7 • Stefan Schubert

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April 2026

Women don’t think 80 percent of men are below average, and the share of children with a secret dad is far below 10 percent

Juicy stories are often false

Apr 24 • Stefan Schubert

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AI economics needs to be weird

AI debates: the relational economy, propaganda predictions, and more

Apr 22 • Stefan Schubert

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Will AI drive humans off social media?

Plus: more intelligent Scandinavian men have more children, most ChatGPT users are now women, and more

Apr 20 • Stefan Schubert

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Nature study finds fast human evolution over the past 10,000 years

Plus: France’s clean electricity, high earners use more AI, and more

Apr 17 • Stefan Schubert

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Growth won’t keep creating new jobs forever – and that’s good, actually

Plus: the case for egg freezing, British grade inflation, and more

Apr 15 • Stefan Schubert

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American college costs are falling fastest for the poorest families

Plus: democratic transition in Hungary, Switzerland’s populist referendums, and more

Apr 14 • Stefan Schubert

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