Thank you for the update! FWIW: when I initially saw the Gallup poll from 1998, I thought that COVID classified as a "deadly disease," though maybe you're right. People from 1998 would probably be thinking of something closer to AIDS?
Surely the explanation that must be tested first is that:
1. SF has stopped properly recording crimes.
2. Sweden's government is now much less liberal than it once was. The Sweden Democrats (a right wing party) have forced a much harsher stance on crime. They're now talking about revoking the citizenship of gang members.
Love the data points thank you but taking issue with the "emergence of a deadly new disease" seems more than a little pendantic ... Where exactly were you in 2020?
I don't think plummeting crime is limited to liberal places.
When I looked into homicide data last August, out of the 12 countries with recent data, 11 of them had drops, and 8 of them decreased by more than 10%.
The Ukraine war is mostly a low level conflict where poor people and criminals get droned. Ukrainian conscripts do it for free and Russian poors do it for money.
With relatively low casualty rates (by land war in Eurasia standards) and it being born mostly by people nobody will miss who volunteered, Russia isn't under much stress. The economic damage is mostly contained.
Moreover, the west has framed the war as basically being anti-Russian. Anyone or anything with a Russian name or drop of Russian blood was attacked, pretty hard to make this about Putin after doing that. Even our primary weapon, sanctions, is about trying to impoverish ordinary Russians.
The same is sort of true on the Ukrainian side. They can keep going on for a pretty long time. You don't need a lot of personal to hold the front. Its like one guy in a hole and then a swarm of drones above him.
This is absolutely brilliant Stefan. Please keep writing these updates.
I think this is really interesting and little known to the general public. Thanks !
Thank you for the update! FWIW: when I initially saw the Gallup poll from 1998, I thought that COVID classified as a "deadly disease," though maybe you're right. People from 1998 would probably be thinking of something closer to AIDS?
Surely the explanation that must be tested first is that:
1. SF has stopped properly recording crimes.
2. Sweden's government is now much less liberal than it once was. The Sweden Democrats (a right wing party) have forced a much harsher stance on crime. They're now talking about revoking the citizenship of gang members.
Love the data points thank you but taking issue with the "emergence of a deadly new disease" seems more than a little pendantic ... Where exactly were you in 2020?
This makes me wish i was as good!
I don't think plummeting crime is limited to liberal places.
When I looked into homicide data last August, out of the 12 countries with recent data, 11 of them had drops, and 8 of them decreased by more than 10%.
https://gdea.substack.com/p/global-homicide-2025-so-far
(Although homicide is a subset of crime, and there are examples like London where petty crimes have increased as violent crimes have decreased).
The Ukraine war is mostly a low level conflict where poor people and criminals get droned. Ukrainian conscripts do it for free and Russian poors do it for money.
With relatively low casualty rates (by land war in Eurasia standards) and it being born mostly by people nobody will miss who volunteered, Russia isn't under much stress. The economic damage is mostly contained.
Moreover, the west has framed the war as basically being anti-Russian. Anyone or anything with a Russian name or drop of Russian blood was attacked, pretty hard to make this about Putin after doing that. Even our primary weapon, sanctions, is about trying to impoverish ordinary Russians.
The same is sort of true on the Ukrainian side. They can keep going on for a pretty long time. You don't need a lot of personal to hold the front. Its like one guy in a hole and then a swarm of drones above him.