Regarding extreme poverty the World Bank projection needs an asterisk: Sub-Saharan Africa fertility rates have been falling for decades. And those declines have been accelerating, e.g. here is Madagascar's TFR:
That part of the world is having the same general decline in population growth as on other continents, they're just not as far along in that fundamental social change. Unless something happens to change the current demographic trends Sub-Saharan societies will begin reaching or crossing the no-net-growth fertility level by the early 2030s. So if the total number of people in extreme poverty does bump back up during the 2030s, as the World Bank researchers posit, it would in the bigger picture be a temporary bump.
I suspect the MAGA movement is mostly just supportive of what Trump does, and so survey results would just reflect what he is doing/saying. Potentially testable if there are similar survey results from say 2023.
Regarding extreme poverty the World Bank projection needs an asterisk: Sub-Saharan Africa fertility rates have been falling for decades. And those declines have been accelerating, e.g. here is Madagascar's TFR:
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/mdg/madagascar/fertility-rate
That part of the world is having the same general decline in population growth as on other continents, they're just not as far along in that fundamental social change. Unless something happens to change the current demographic trends Sub-Saharan societies will begin reaching or crossing the no-net-growth fertility level by the early 2030s. So if the total number of people in extreme poverty does bump back up during the 2030s, as the World Bank researchers posit, it would in the bigger picture be a temporary bump.
I've written a bit more about that issue here - https://gdea.substack.com/p/demographic-uncertainty-and-the-future
I suspect the MAGA movement is mostly just supportive of what Trump does, and so survey results would just reflect what he is doing/saying. Potentially testable if there are similar survey results from say 2023.