Some people argue that the UN population projections are underestimating how fast fertility will fall, and that population will peak/fall significantly sooner than they project. Thoughts?
Some people? I'd suggest it's actually everyone who has tried looking under the hood knows they are over optimistic projections. Humanity will certainly peak before 10 billion.
While populations of course differ in their GDP per capita, the largest single factor determining total GDP is still just total population. Thus a shrinking population implies the rational expectation of shrinking total GDP, for the first time in hundreds of years. In the complex adaptive system that is an economy, who knows what indirect second and third order effects this essentially unprecedented reversal of absolute growth expectations will have? We'll find out!
Some people argue that the UN population projections are underestimating how fast fertility will fall, and that population will peak/fall significantly sooner than they project. Thoughts?
Some people? I'd suggest it's actually everyone who has tried looking under the hood knows they are over optimistic projections. Humanity will certainly peak before 10 billion.
While populations of course differ in their GDP per capita, the largest single factor determining total GDP is still just total population. Thus a shrinking population implies the rational expectation of shrinking total GDP, for the first time in hundreds of years. In the complex adaptive system that is an economy, who knows what indirect second and third order effects this essentially unprecedented reversal of absolute growth expectations will have? We'll find out!
Another great collection. Thanks!
There are enough people. What I hear when people say things like that is, "There aren't enough *white* people.
And population ethicists are just rationalizing their biases; https://www.mattball.org/2026/01/meet-morgan-yet-another-failure-of.html