Yes. To the doomsday clock. Also the signs of the end times--you know that we're about to have "rapture" and "tribulation"...apocalypse. I means things did suck not long after Jesus death, maybe he was right, but the idea that this is coming for all of us, predicted by current events of a thousand years and, silliest of all, quoting the verse saying people who denied these signs, whose grandchildren died haven never seen end times either, were somehow bad/wrong.
Whether a state is a blue state or a red state depends on who lives there. In this case, who is moving matters because if it's Democrats (more likely if movers are a random draw from shrinking blue states), some added probability of winning Georgia or North Carolina would suffice to make up for the extra electoral votes in e.g. Texas and Florida.
I'm interested to see someone do the analysis, but naïvely it seems like if you increase your cumulative odds of winning just one of GA or NC by 32% (11/34 expected electoral votes), this works in favor of Democrats. Seems like a high bar, but not crazy if movers are high propensity voters and maybe moving predicts openness and openness predicts democrat.
Highly recommend the Doomsday Machine by Dan Ellsberg if you don’t fancy sleeping tonight. We are rather lucky to be here…
Yes. To the doomsday clock. Also the signs of the end times--you know that we're about to have "rapture" and "tribulation"...apocalypse. I means things did suck not long after Jesus death, maybe he was right, but the idea that this is coming for all of us, predicted by current events of a thousand years and, silliest of all, quoting the verse saying people who denied these signs, whose grandchildren died haven never seen end times either, were somehow bad/wrong.
I haven't seen any data. But the handful of stories I've heard in Oregon are definitely not democratic voters.
Whether a state is a blue state or a red state depends on who lives there. In this case, who is moving matters because if it's Democrats (more likely if movers are a random draw from shrinking blue states), some added probability of winning Georgia or North Carolina would suffice to make up for the extra electoral votes in e.g. Texas and Florida.
I'm interested to see someone do the analysis, but naïvely it seems like if you increase your cumulative odds of winning just one of GA or NC by 32% (11/34 expected electoral votes), this works in favor of Democrats. Seems like a high bar, but not crazy if movers are high propensity voters and maybe moving predicts openness and openness predicts democrat.