The chance of Iranian regime change is falling

Links: half of young Brits intend to vote Green, AI is now a three-way race, and more

• Polymarket’s estimated chance of Iranian regime change this year has fallen from a peak of 56 percent to 34 percent

• Half of British 18–24-year-olds intend to vote for the Greens

• ‘Frontier AI models are a three-way race between OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic at this point’

• Virginia Postrel writes for Works in Progress on how TV took off thanks to sports

• Working from home is much more common at new firms than at old ones

• Why people cooperate when they know they’ll meet again

• Model suggests new malaria vaccine could raise Tanzania’s GDP by almost seven percent

• ‘AI ethics is critiquing its way into irrelevance’

• Clinical trials are bottlenecked by inefficient operations

• Can India’s outsourcing model survive AI?