Cuba’s leader expected to be out by June

Links on geopolitical predictions, the Iran war, India’s GDP, and more

• Polymarket gives a 61 percent chance that Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel is out by 30th June

• Oil crosses $100 and stock markets fall as Iran war causes shipping disruption

• India’s GDP is revised down, but growth is revised up

• You can now listen to Works in Progress articles

• Polymarket gives a 64 percent chance that Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán will lose next month’s elections

• Null results rarely get published in social science

• The link between low and late fertility is surprisingly weak

• Tom Chivers and Stuart Ritchie on why critical thinking is largely domain-specific

• Microsoft, Google, and Amazon say customers can still use Claude for nondefense work, making Anthropic less likely to collapse

• Brian Potter on America’s failed plan for prefab housing